The bi-polar resource-allocation problem under uncertainty and conflict: A general methodology for the public decision-maker

Author： Ridgley M. Lumpkin C.A.

Publisher： Academic Press

ISSN： 0301-4797

Source： Journal of Environmental Management, Vol.59, Iss.2, 2000-06, pp. : 89-105

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Abstract

This paper presents a general methodology for bi-polar allocation of a scarce resource under uncertainty and conflict. Conflict is represented by competing objectives, while uncertainty accrues due to imprecision in the estimation and prediction of resource-allocation consequences, to disagreement among experts about those consequences, and to unpredictable future environments of the system. The method uses cognitive maps to examine the sources of expert disagreement, scenarios to represent key uncertainties about future management contexts, criterion hierarchies to represent the various dimensions of the decision, multiattribute value functions to measure the effects of different allocations on those dimensions under different scenarios and viewpoints, and multigoal programming to design compromise allocations. The method allows one to vary the degree of aggregation and commensuration and to employ alternative preference structures, thus reflecting different degrees of commensuration of and trade-offs (compensation) across objectives. These options enable decision-makers to use a model that accords well with their views of the most appropriate social choice logic for the situation at hand. We illustrate the methodology with an application to the controversy over the reallocation of Waiahole Ditch water on Oahu, Hawaii, and conclude by highlighting the innovations of this methodology and relating it to broader issues of social choice.