Profit Forecasts in the Annual Report: The Problem of Economic Assumptions

Author: Meeks G.  

Publisher: Academic Press

ISSN: 0890-8389

Source: British Accounting Review, Vol.30, Iss.2, 1998-06, pp. : 159-172

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Abstract

It is widely accepted that a major role for financial reporting is to help participants in the financial markets to forecast a company's income. Why then do companies not routinely publish forecasts? It is not because providers and users of accounts are unaccustomed to using forecast data: many forecast variables are already embedded in conventional «ex post» accounts. A more important obstacle is that any forecast is inevitably contingent on the future «state of the world» which will confront the company—on exogenous economic conditions. Inevitably, some forecasts will prove incorrect. This paper explores the difficulties this creates and proposes a partial solution.