IN-GM(0, N) cost forecasting model of commercial aircraft based on interval grey numbers

Author： Tian Min Cao Ying Xie Naiming Liu Sifeng

ISSN： 0368-492X

Source： Kybernetes: The International Journal of Systems & Cybernetics, Vol.41, Iss.7-8, 2012-08, pp. : 886-896

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Abstract

Purpose ‐ The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel GM(0, N) model based on grey number sequences and to solve the problem of cost forecasting of commercial aircraft which puzzled managers, especially the factors of cost with uncertain information. Design/methodology/approach ‐ Based on the definition of traditional GM(0, N) model, the paper considers the limited information and knowledge, and the algorithm of grey numbers with greyness and kernel was designed. A novel GM(0, N) model based on grey number sequences, named the IN-GM(0, N) model, is proposed according to the definition of the grey numbers algorithm. The steps of the proposed model are then given. Finally, a case of domestic commercial aircrafts is developed as an example, based on information gathering and model calculating. Findings ‐ The results of this research indicate that the IN-GM(0,N) model is effective in cost calculating, providing reliable technical support for cost estimation of large-scale complex equipment including commercial aircraft. Practical implications ‐ Cost forecasting of commercial aircraft can be solved effectively and the model can also be utilized to predicate other products. Originality/value ‐ The paper succeeds in constructing a novel grey forecasting model. This work contributes significantly to improving grey forecasting theory and to undoubtedly propose more novel grey forecasting models.