Author： Ehret Uwe
Publisher： E. Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung
ISSN： 0941-2948
Source： Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol.19, Iss.5, 2010-10, pp. : 441-451
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Abstract
In this study, a new performance measure is presented which evaluates to what extent a sequence of forecasts converges, with decreasing lead time, towards the observation without oscillation. Convergence and non-oscillation are important quality criteria when actions requiring time-consistency such as flood management or reservoir operation during floods have to be based on the forecasts. The underlying theory of the Convergence Index is presented as well its application during a seven-month series of three forecast models (COSMO-EU, NOAA GFS and Persistence) in the alpine catchment of the Iller, Germany. The expressiveness of the Convergence Index is critically evaluated and compared to a standard measure (Root Mean Square Error). In summary, the Convergence Index can, in combination with other measures that express forecast quality in absolute rather than relative terms, contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of forecasts.
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