Probabilistic Regularities in Unfavorable Hydrochemical Phenomena

Author: Dolgonosov B.   Korchagin K.  

Publisher: MAIK Nauka/Interperiodica

ISSN: 0097-8078

Source: Water Resources, Vol.32, Iss.4, 2005-07, pp. : 410-416

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Abstract

The balance equation for a substance washed out in a river basin is analyzed under the assumption that the runoff of this substance and its reserves in the watershed are directly proportional. The proportionality factor is perturbed by a random component, which accounts for the effect of atmospheric precipitation. The balance equation is transformed into a stochastic differential equation with a multiplicative white noise, which is used to construct a Fokker-Plank equation for the probability density of chemical flow. A stationary solution containing a power function is found for this equation. Because of the proportionality of the concentration and chemical flow, the concentration distribution also obeys the power law. Statistical treatment of empirical data on some water quality characteristics and water flow showed that the power law adequately describes the probability of unfavorable hydrochemical events. The parameters of this law for turbidity, color index, permanganate oxidability, and ammonia concentration are evaluated.