An improved mathematical model of the ovulatory cycle of the laying hen

ISSN： 1466-1799

Source： British Poultry Science, Vol.44, Iss.5, 2003-12, pp. : 752-760

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Abstract

1. The mathematical model of the hen's ovulatory cycle proposed by Etches and Schoch (British Poultry Science, 25: 65-76, 1984) predicts ovulation times for sequences of 2 to 9 ovulations only.2. Continuous functions have been produced, representing the changes required to the parameters λ₁, λ₂, S₁, S₂, b₁, b₂ and b₃, such that the prediction of any sequence length is now possible.3. This improved ovulation model is capable of predicting ovulation times and intra-sequence ovulation intervals for any ovulation rate between 0·5 and 1·0.4. The improved ovulatory model lends itself to stochasticity. The rate of lay of a population of hens at a time may be modelled with the use of means and standard errors for each of the parameters in the model.5. Age-related changes in the ovulation rate of the population may be predicted using a combination of three methods, which are consistent with published theories that account for the decline in performance with time.