Economic Links and Predictable Returns

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc

E-ISSN: 1540-6261|22-1082|4|1977-2011

ISSN: 0022-1082

Source: THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Vol.22-1082, Iss.4, 2008-08, pp. : 1977-2011

Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.

Previous Menu Next

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating return predictability across assets. Using a data set of firms' principal customers to identify a set of economically related firms, we show that stock prices do not incorporate news involving related firms, generating predictable subsequent price moves. A long–short equity strategy based on this effect yields monthly alphas of over 150 basis points.