Use of Systemigrams to Identify Emergence in Complex Adaptive Systems

E-ISSN： 2334-5837|25|1|582-599

ISSN： 2334-5837

Source： INCOSE International Symposium, Vol.25, Iss.1, 2015-10, pp. : 582-599

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Abstract

This paper presents the application of a sociotechnical modeling framework to capture emergent patterns and regional dependencies in the international natural gas market in context with the larger global energy marketplace. Soft systems methods were used to produce conceptual models of flow and interaction in order to inform the design of analytical models. First, this research project captured and analyzed the flows of natural gas in international markets by developing a conceptual model of the global natural gas infrastructure and future growth options at the regional level. Policies, players, infrastructure, and markets all exist at the global, regional, and national level to make up the present‐day natural gas landscape. Second, the research team worked to model the overall global natural gas sociotechnical enterprise and its future growth options to understand the regional versus global interdependencies and their likely effect on the changing natural gas landscape. The results capture emerging trends in the system that may not be obvious without a systemic analysis.