Publisher： Cambridge University Press
E-ISSN： 1537-5943|102|1|77-93
ISSN： 0003-0554
Source： American Political Science Review, Vol.102, Iss.1, 2008-02, pp. : 77-93
Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.
Abstract
Systemic theories of international politics rarely predict conflict short of cataclysmic systemic wars, and dyadic theories of conflict lack systemic perspective. This article attempts to bridge the gap by introducing a two-step theory of conflict among Great Powers. In the first stage, states engage in a dynamic, ongoing process of managing the international system, which inevitably produces tensions among them. In the second stage, relative levels of security-related activity determine how and when those tensions erupt into disputes. A test of the theory on Great Power conflicts from the nineteenth century supports the argument and, moreover, favors the deterrence model over the spiral model as a proximate explanation of conflict in the second stage.
Related content
Great Power Conflict: Will It Return?
World Affairs, Vol. 177, Iss. 5, 2015-01 ,pp. :
Access to resources
Recommend
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. John Mearsheimer. New York: W.W. Norton, 2001. 555 pp. $27.95
By Dueck C.
Survival, Vol. 44, Iss. 3, 2002-01 ,pp. :