Simple Correlation Models for Estimation of Horizontal Global Solar Radiation for Oran, Northwest Algeria

E-ISSN： 1663-4144|2017|32|124-132

ISSN： 1663-3571

Source： International Journal of Engineering Research in Africa, Vol.2017, Iss.32, 2017-10, pp. : 124-132

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Abstract

In the literature, several correlation models have been developed to predict solar radiation on horizontal surfaces. In this paper, the daily solar radiation data and sunshine duration data measured during the period of 2006-2010, were used to calculate the monthly mean values of daily total solar radiation using five modified Angstrom–Prescott model and three day of the year based empirical models of Oran city (35°42 N and 00°36 W) in Algeria. Furthermore, those modified models are compared with three existing models. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the models, the statistical testing error such as R², RMSE, rRMSE, MAPE and MBE are used. According to statistical test results and from the sunshine duration models, the polynomial model (#4) showed the best estimation results with a coefficient of determination R²=0.991, rRMSE=4.129%, and MAPE=3.635%. Furthermore, the accurate model from the day of the year models is the model (7), with R²=0.987, rRMSE=4.067%, and MAPE=3.5194%. Moreover, this paper finds that the best accuracy model to estimate the monthly mean daily solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in Oran city is the sine and cosine wave trigonometric model (#7).