Suppression of epidemic outbreaks with heavy-tailed contact dynamics

Author: Min Byungjoon   Goh K.-I.   Kim I.-M.  

Publisher: Edp Sciences

E-ISSN: 1286-4854|103|5|50002-50002

ISSN: 0295-5075

Source: EPL (EUROPHYSICS LETTERS), Vol.103, Iss.5, 2013-09, pp. : 50002-50002

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Abstract

We study the epidemic spreading process following contact dynamics with heavy-tailed waiting time distributions. We show both analytically and numerically that the temporal heterogeneity of contact dynamics can significantly suppress the disease's transmissibility, hence the size of epidemic outbreak, obstructing the spreading process. Furthermore, when the temporal heterogeneity is strong enough, one obtains the vanishing transmissibility for any finite recovery time and regardless of the underlying structure of contacts, the condition of which was derived.