Using multivariate time series methods to estimate location and climate change effects on temperature readings employed in electricity demand simulation

Publisher： John Wiley & Sons Inc

E-ISSN： 1467-842x|59|4|413-431

ISSN： 1369-1473

Source： Australian & New Zealand Journal Of Statistics, Vol.59, Iss.4, 2017-12, pp. : 413-431

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Abstract

SummaryLong‐term historical daily temperatures are used in electricity forecasting to simulate the probability distribution of future demand but can be affected by changes in recording site and climate. This paper presents a method of adjusting for the effect of these changes on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The adjustment technique accommodates the autocorrelated and bivariate nature of the temperature data which has not previously been taken into account. The data are from Perth, Western Australia, the main electricity demand centre for the South‐West of Western Australia. The statistical modelling involves a multivariate extension of the univariate time series ‘interleaving method’, which allows fully efficient simultaneous estimation of the parameters of replicated Vector Autoregressive Moving Average processes. Temperatures at the most recent weather recording location in Perth are shown to be significantly lower compared to previous sites. There is also evidence of long‐term heating due to climate change especially for minimum temperatures.