MODIFICATION OF THE AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION TO ACCOUNT FOR SEASONAL EFFECTS

Author: CEM KADILAR   CENAP ERDEMìR  

Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd

ISSN: 0094-9655

Source: Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol.73, Iss.2, 2002-01, pp. : 135-143

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Abstract

Seasonal behavior is shown to diminish the performance of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) used for determining the order of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. To solve this problem we modified the AIC for seasonal VAR (SVAR) models, using simulation results to develop the seasonally modified AIC. This proposed AIC performs better than the traditional AIC in SVAR models.