Author： Spezia Luigi
Publisher： Taylor & Francis Ltd
ISSN： 0361-0926
Source： Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, Vol.37, Iss.13, 2008-01, pp. : 2079-2094
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Abstract
We deal with one-layer feed-forward neural network for the Bayesian analysis of nonlinear time series. Noises are modeled nonlinearly and nonnormally, by means of ARCH models whose parameters are all dependent on a hidden Markov chain. Parameter estimation is performed by sampling from the posterior distribution via Evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm, in which two new crossover operators have been introduced. Unknown parameters of the model also include the missing values which can occur within the observed series, so, considering future values as missing, it is also possible to compute point and interval multi-step-ahead predictions.
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