Gulf War 4.0: Iran, Saudi Arabia and the complexification of the Persian Gulf equation

ISSN： 1469-9311

Source： Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations, Vol.23, Iss.4, 2012-10, pp. : 471-486

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Abstract

As the effects of the Arab Spring continue to reverberate across the Middle East, the world now looks for new ways to assess the implications of this momentous event, in the process often forgetting many of the cataclysmic forces still underlying tensions in the region. Drawing upon historical precedent, theory and current events, this article argues that the events of the Arab Spring have served to obscure, and distract attention away from, the increasing likelihood of a conventional war arising between Iran and an Arab coalition in the Persian Gulf. The article highlights a range of factors contributing to this latent potential: the ever-expanding arms race between these two power blocs, the ambiguity of Iran's nuclear goals and the unprecedented level of uncertainty in the region associated with the roiling unrest on the Arab street. All have added to an increasingly uncertain atmosphere that is now punctuated with interventionism, opportunism and growing military might. In such a volatile regional environment, where force appears to be becoming the tool of choice, the probability for a broader crisis and a new Gulf War is at levels unseen in over two decades.