Tuberculosis Transmission Model with Chemoprophylaxis and Treatment

ISSN： 0092-8240

Source： Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol.70, Iss.4, 2008-05, pp. : 1163-1191

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Abstract

A tuberculosis model which incorporates treatment of infectives and chemoprophylaxis is presented. The model assumes that latently infected individuals develop active disease as a result of endogenous re-activation, exogenous re-infection and disease relapse, though a small fraction is assumed to develop active disease soon after infection. We start by formulating and analyzing a TB model without any intervention strategy that we extend to incorporate chemoprophylaxis and treatment of infectives. The epidemic thresholds known as reproduction numbers and equilibria for the models are determined, and stabilities analyzed. The reproduction numbers for the models are compared to assess the possible community benefits achieved by treatment of infectives, chemoprophylaxis and a holistic approach of these intervention strategies. The study shows that treatment of infectives is more effective in the first years of implementation (≍ 10 years) as treatment results in clearing active TB immediately and there after chemoprophylaxis will do better in controlling the number of infectives due to reduced progression to active TB.