Five tools to prepare for future discontinuities

Author: Singer Jim   Piluso Jeff  

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd

ISSN: 1087-8572

Source: Strategy and Leadership, Vol.38, Iss.1, 2010-01, pp. : 17-21

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Abstract

Purpose ‐ Because most observers ordinarily view the future as an extrapolation of current trends, they are unprepared for discontinuities. The paper aims to urge that leaders foster a culture of open mindedness to better imagine and prepare for discontinuity. Design/methodology/approach ‐ Based on best practice experimentation the authors suggest five "tools" that are useful for achieving a discontinuous mindset. Findings ‐ To achieve a discontinuous mindset, managers need not turn their back on current forecasting activities, but they do need to balance them, intellectually, with considerations of longer-term uncertainties. Practical implications ‐ Although the authors appreciate the value of innovative planning techniques ‐ scenario planning, diversity planning, reverse-engineering the future, developing a 25-year business plan and culture-based planning ‐ they propose that a discontinuous mindset and the five tools to develop it are the best defenses against unanticipated disruption of markets. Originality/value ‐ The five tools for developing a discontinuous mindset offer a fresh take on how leaders can come to grips with an uncertain future.