Author: Joyeux Roselyne Milunovich George Rigg John
Publisher: Routledge Ltd
ISSN: 1094-1665
Source: Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, Vol.17, Iss.1, 2012-02, pp. : 100-119
Disclaimer: Any content in publications that violate the sovereignty, the constitution or regulations of the PRC is not accepted or approved by CNPIEC.
Abstract
We forecast demand for Australian passports using a number of univariate and multivariate forecasting models, and assess their relative predictive ability over a number of forecasting horizons and evaluation measures. Our key result is to use different forecasting models for predicting passport demand in the short- versus medium- to long-run. Specifically, to forecast Adult-and-Senior passport demand in the short-term (i.e. up to 12 months) univariate ARIMA models are preferred, while for the longer term forecasts multivariate models with exogenous variables outperform, although only marginally. To forecast passport demand for Minors (less than 18 years old) ARIMA models perform well both in the short-term and the long-term, although ARIMA with explanatory variables outperforms slightly.
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